The decision usually breaks down along four axes: time in conservative care, quality of that care, function, and imaging.
Time in conservative care. Six to twelve months is the standard threshold before surgery becomes a reasonable conversation. Under 6 months, the answer is almost always more conservative care. Over 12 months with disciplined effort, the conversation shifts.
Quality of that care. This is where most decisions actually get made. "I rested it and took ibuprofen" is not conservative care. Real conservative care includes coached eccentric loading (the Tyler twist, done correctly, 3 sets of 15 daily for at least 6–12 weeks), a counterforce brace during aggravating activity, ergonomic change at work and home, and usually a course of PT through your in-network provider. If you haven't actually done that yet, your conservative care hasn't failed — it hasn't started.
Function. Pain alone isn't usually a surgical indication for tennis elbow. Pain that's collapsing function — you can't do your job, you can't sleep, you can't grip — is. We separate the two carefully at the visit.
Imaging. Most tennis elbow doesn't need MRI. But if the story doesn't fit (discrete trauma, weakness out of proportion to pain, numbness, a snapping or popping), we image to look for a partial or full-thickness tear, a ligament injury, or radial tunnel syndrome. A confirmed tendon tear or refractory tendinosis on imaging is part of the surgical conversation; an unremarkable MRI usually pushes us back toward better-executed conservative care.